Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 250 PM Sun June 9, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 9:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall with the potential for severe storms across the District this afternoon and evening. The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity within the District will be between now-8pm with a few lingering showers possible through midnight. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be throughout the entire message times. Storm motions will be nearly non-exsistant with pulse like thunderstorms producing some longer lasting moderate to heavy rain. Outflow boundaries will also produce additinal erratic storm movement which will only increase chances for heavy rainfall through the afternoon and into the evening. Lack of upper-level support suggest slow moving storms with a low chance of severe weather today, mainly gusty winds 60+ mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter likely favoring the plains areas of the district. Severe storms will also contain isolated heavy rainfall with the largest threat being stationary heavy rainfall creating a quick 0.5-1.0” in 10-15 minutes. Skies will clear this evening and overnight as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s in the plains and low to mid 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce rainfall of a 0.10”-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong showers have the potential to produce rainfall of 0.50”-1.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationery, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce up to 2.25” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM DIA 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Denver County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Adams County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Arvada 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Denver 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]