Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 858 AM Tue July 19, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - Flow aloft will be westerly this morning, becoming northwesterly by the afternoon. Very hot temperatures in the mid to upper 90's are expected again today, with dew points in the upper 40's to low 50's. These conditions will favor isolated showers across the District. Thunderstorm activity will produce minimal precipitation, with a very low chance for moderate to heavy rainfall. - Storms will begin developing over the foothills around noon and are expected to move east across the District. Prime time for storms today is from 12pm to 8pm. Typical thunderstorms will produce light to briefly moderate rainfall, mostly favoring areas in and around the foothills. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Wednesday. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorms anchoring to the foothills or outflow boundary will have the potential to produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall of 0.4-0.8" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot conditions with afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue this week as a heat dome remains parked over the four-corners region. Similar conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as high temperatures remain in the 90's with a round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]