Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 846 AM Thu July 8, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - A small heat wave is in store for the District over the next couple of days as temperatures are expected to reach triple digits in some areas this afternoon. - A slight chance for high-based afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, although with nearly 100 degree high temperatures and quickly dropping dew points this afternoon, any rainfall today will struggle to reach the surface resulting in gusty winds to be the largest threat for today. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out today as well, with the potential for some rain and possibly a few lightning strikes. Best chance for storms today will be from 2-8pm with skies gradually clearing through the overnight and into Friday. - Overnight will be mild with lows in the mid to upper 60's along the plains with upper 50's to low 60's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 0.3-0.6" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Another hot day tomorrow with storm chances picking up slightly in the afternoon and early evening. A weak cold front moves in overnight and into Saturday which will lower high temperatures into the 80's. A very slight chance for rain showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, mainly focusing on the foothills and Palmer Divide. Conditions look to dry out both Sunday and Monday as high temperatures return to the 90's for most areas. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]