Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 905 AM Fri July 28, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS The heat dome currently centered over the 4-corners region will continue to support hot conditions today and into the weekend. Today will be hot and partly to mostly sunny with afternoon temperatures climbing into the mid 90s, dew points in the mid 40s, followed by a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms may become severe, producing gusty outflows exceeding 58 mph, and hail greater than 1.00 inch in diameter. Storms will roll off the foothills during the early afternoon hours, moving east around 25-30 MPH. Fast storm motions will limit point rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm activity is expected to subside across the Front Range Urban Corridor by the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms will produce moderate rainfall of up to 0.25” in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall up to 0.50” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored or training thunderstorms have the potential to produce 0.50” to 1.00” in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Very little change in the weather pattern tomorrow as highs reach the low to mid 90s with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Sunday will be similar, with afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s and isolated showers and thunderstorms. Hot temperatures and isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will continue into early next week. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]