Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 958 AM Tue August 6, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Chances for Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure remains parked over the Four-Corners region today, supporting hot temperatures in the mid 90s once again. Afternoon dewpoints will be in the low to mid 50s, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.00”. These conditions will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, beginning over higher terrain early this afternoon and moving onto the plains by midafternoon. Storm motions will be from west to east broadly, around 10-20 mph. CAPE values around 1500 J/kg suggest storms have the potential to produce hail, which may help limit point rainfall amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between 0.25”-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving stronger thunderstorm may be capable of producing 1.25” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: A more active pattern begins tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the north. Elevated atmospheric moisture and favorable upper-level conditions will support scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the District beginning tomorrow afternoon. This pattern is expected to continue Thursday and Friday, before gradually winding down over the weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]