Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 820 AM Sun October 2, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING - The unsettled weather pattern remains in place today bringing another chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms resulting in a LOW chance for Message 1 issuance. High temperatures will be slightly cooler today, which should effectively limit the storm intensity, with highs in the upper 60's to low 70's across the District. - A few snow showers currently along the Continental Divide, which will push eastward through the morning, turning over to rain showers as they move into warmer air along the Front Range. A few scattered light rain showers will be possible this morning with rain showers/isolated thunderstorm chances picking up into the afternoon and early evening. Due to cooler temperatures, storms strength should be limited today, however with good upper-level support still in place a few storms could strengthen along the I-25 corridor and eastward this afternoon bringing a chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall for portions of the District. - The best chance for storms today will be from 2-8pm with a slight chance for lingering rain showers this evening and into the overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40's to low 50's with skies gradually clearing into daybreak Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms cells has the potential to produce 1.2" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This active weather pattern will hold through Monday, however, a decrease in available moisture, combined with even cooler high temperatures, should help limit any potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Tuesday looks to dry out completely with mostly sunny skies as high temperatures reach around 70 degrees. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]