Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 902 AM Tue September 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Another hot, mostly sunny day with a slight chance of a few high based showers/thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. The high-pressure ridge will start to slowly break down today keeping westerly upper-level dynamics aloft. This will result in mild and dry conditions throughout most of the day today under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Another slight chance this afternoon for a few high-based showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. Once again, most storm activity will remain anchored to the foothills, likely mixing out as they move eastward and onto the plains. The majority of, if not all precipitation will struggle to reach the surface, bringing a better chance of gusty sprinkles rather than any meaningful rainfall within the District. The best chance for storm activity will be from 3-8pm with skies clearing by midnight. Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with low to mid 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce between a trace and 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong shower/isolated thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.10”-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A weak disturbance will move into the region today, bringing a better chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Good southwesterly upper-level support could enhance storm potential with some stronger storms possible for areas east of the I-25 corridor. The best chance for storm activity will be between 2-8pm tomorrow with a couple of rounds of showers/thunderstorms possible within the District. Thursday remains breezy and dry as high temperatures drop into a more seasonable low 80s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]