Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 916 PM Sat May 11, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Scattered Showers Persist Overnight A weak cold front is expected to sweep across the plains overnight, bringing a chance for a few scattered showers across the District during the overnight and into the early morning hours tomorrow. Cool temperatures in the mid 40s and PWAT values of around 0.55 will result in relatively light precipitation during the frontal passage. The best chance for morning showers will be between 3am-7am. Atmospheric moisture will continue increasing tomorrow, with a better chance for full sun will bring better chances for more meaningful precipitation tomorrow afternoon and into tomorrow evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce light rainfall of up to 0.15” total in 15-30 minutes WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stronger showers will have the potential to produce up to 0.25” total rainfall 15-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: On Sunday, the cut-off low will begin shifting east, supporting better chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s with dewpoints in the upper 30s to low 40s. Storm motions will be from the north around 20 mph helping limit point rainfall amount. However, a stronger storm could produce a gust front with potentially slower storm movements as storms develop off flanking boundaries. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 300 AM TO 900 AM 0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%) NONE Arapahoe 300 AM TO 900 AM 0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%) NONE Boulder 300 AM TO 900 AM 0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%) NONE Broomfield 300 AM TO 900 AM 0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%) NONE Denver 300 AM TO 900 AM 0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%) NONE Douglas 300 AM TO 900 AM 0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%) NONE Jefferson 300 AM TO 900 AM 0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 300 AM TO 900 AM 0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%) NONE Douglas 300 AM TO 900 AM 0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%) NONE Jefferson 300 AM TO 900 AM 0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]