Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 901 AM Sun May 7, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD Temperatures over the plains will be slightly above normal today, warming into the lower 70’s with 50’s and 60’s in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 67 degrees with a record high of 89 and a record low of 23. The record high was set just last year. Clouds will be on the increase this morning, becoming partly to mostly cloudy through much of the day. A weak upper level disturbance will move through later this morning into the afternoon but most of the precipitation will skip over the District as surface moisture is lacking with dew points currently in the 20’s to around 30. There will still be a slight chance for isolated rain showers and weak thunderstorms late morning into the afternoon as the upper level feature passes overhead. Showers and thunderstorms that develop today will move quickly from SW to NE producing breezy winds and light to brief moderate rain. After 6pm chances for precipitation diminish with dry conditions expected for the overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1” of precipitation in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.10-0.30” in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer on Monday with a low chance for an isolated afternoon thunderstorm producing minimal rainfall. We will tack on a degree or two to afternoon highs on Tuesday with a continued chance for an isolated afternoon thunderstorm in the afternoon. Tuesday evening and early overnight there could be a few rain showers that remain in the area. Better chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday as a low pressure system passes to our north with wrap around moisture on Thursday keeping a chance for rain showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Arapahoe 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Broomfield 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1000 AM TO 600 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Douglas 1000 AM TO 600 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson 1000 AM TO 600 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]