Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 926 AM Sat June 15, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warmer and sunny to start the day with a chance for high-based isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Areas of lingering fog this morning has kept dew points elevated across the District this morning, in the mid to upper 50s in some spots. Dew points are anticipated to mix out throughout the day, however, if dew points remain elevated into the afternoon there will be a slight chance storms are able to tap into the surface moisture and could potentially produce brief moderate to heavy rainfall. This will keep at least a LOW chance for Messages to be issued this afternoon, mainly if a stronger storm is able to develop and could produce a quick 0.5” in 10-20 minutes. Storms will start at midday along the higher terrain foothills and Cheyenne Ridge/Palmer Divide. Storms will progress into the District around 1pm and last through 6-7pm with skies clearing in the late evening. Overnight conditions are expected to be mild as temperatures drop into the low 60s. A few areas of patchy fog will be possible through daybreak tomorrow before burning off as the morning progresses. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a Trace-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 0.80” total in under 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure starts to build tomorrow leading to mostly mild and dry conditions throughout the day. Tomorrow’s high temperatures jump back into the 90s under sunny. Dry and hot Monday as high temperatures continue to reach well into the 90s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]