Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 934 AM Wed August 14, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms Expected Today. High temperatures will be in the 80s today with dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.70”. Although atmospheric moisture will begin decreasing, there will still be enough moisture for isolated to scattered storms broadly across the District this afternoon and evening. Storm motions will be from west to east around 25 mph. Quick storm motions will help limit point rainfall amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between 0.25”-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving stronger thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms, may be capable of producing 1.25” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Ridge building begins across the Intermountain west, supporting hotter and dryer weather through the end of the week. On Thursday, isolated showers and storms capable of producing light rain and gusty winds are possible. Afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s. Warmer conditions are expected Friday with highs in the 90s and slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening thunderstorms. Saturday will be similar, with warm temperatures and isolated showers. Meaningful precipitation is not expected again until Sunday when a shift in the upper level jet will begin transporting better moisture into the region. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]