Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 924 AM Thu August 22, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Scattered to Widespread Thunderstorms today. Monsoonal moisture and cloud cover will play a significant role in storm development today. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 50s and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.00”. Due to early morning cloud cover, convection initiation is expected to begin during the midafternoon. Slower upper-level steering winds will support clustered thunderstorms today, moving west to east around 15 mph. Slower storm movements may result in higher point rainfall amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between 0.50”-1.00” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm complex may be capable of producing 1.50” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: By Friday, a trough moving over the west coast will amplify the ridge over the Central Plains, creating a capping inversion across the District. This inversion will result in highs around 90°F and isolated storm coverage capable of producing light to briefly moderate precipitation. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]