Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 732 PM Tue May 28, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Approaching gust front from the east has increased chances for evening showers & thunderstorms for portions of the District. Most storms have missed the District this afternoon and into the evening. However, a few stronger storms to the east have developed and produced a gust front which will move into the District over the next couple of hours. This gust has initiated some explosive storm development just east of the District currently and could potentially move into the District this evening. This has resulted in an upgrade to a LOW Message potential for this evening. The best chance for storms inside the District will be in the next hour, lasting through midnight tonight. Showers/thunderstorms should remain isolated and favor eastern portions of the District. Currently dew points in the District are in the upper 30s to low 40s, but could quickly increase behind the gust front, effectively increasing the potential for moderate to brief heavy rain. Skies will gradually clear after midnight with no additional showers expected at this time. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a 0.05"-0.30" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30"-0.60” in 10-30 minutes WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong storm will have the potential to produce 1.20” in up to 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: On Wednesday, mostly sunny morning skies will allow afternoon highs to climb into the 80s once again. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms improve during the afternoon and evening. On Thursday, another round of scattered afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms is possible ahead of a weak cold front overnight. Friday will be active following the frontal passage, with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and chances for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]