Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 848 AM Sun August 13, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS An upper-level disturbance and its associated cold front will work its way across the High Plains this morning, followed by a chance for scattered showers and storms. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s, with dew points in the upper 40s to around 50°F. Atmospheric conditions today are expected to remain stable, limiting storm development across the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will be weak, producing rainfall of TR-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Stronger storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.25” to 0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm may have the potential to produce 0.50” to 1.00” in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow morning will be mostly sunny followed by highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers mainly over the foothills. A drying pattern will begin on Tuesday as upper-level ridging expands into the Intermountain West. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s under sunny skies. On Wednesday, high temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s with clear skies. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]