Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 911 AM Mon June 24, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Another hot day today with a slight chance of high-based afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms The high-pressure ridging across the region peaks today, leading to another hot day for the District as high temperatures reach the upper 90s. A heat advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service for today, extending into tomorrow due to these high temperatures. Clouds will increase this afternoon with a few high based showers and isolated thunderstorms move into the region, favoring the higher terrain foothills. Most, if not all, precipitation will struggle to reach the surface today as dew points decrease into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees this afternoon. This will likley result in gusty sprikles, more than any decent rainfall for today. The best chance for any shower activity will be from 2pm-10pm with storm motions west to east around 10mph. Any shower activity will diminish significantly after sundown. Skies will gradually clear through the overnight as temperatures drop into the mid 60s on the plains with around 60 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.05” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower, or isolated thunderstorm will produce 0.05-0.15” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm will have the potential to produce up to 0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A minimal overall change tomorrow will lead to similar conditions as high temperatures remain in the upper 90s with the heat advisory continuing into Tuesday evening. Drier conditions are expected tomorrow; however, a few high-based showers cannot be completely ruled out at this time. Wednesday the high-pressure ridge will start to break down leading to a better chance of impactful showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.15" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.15" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.15" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]