Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 854 AM Tue July 20, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINOUS ARES OF THE STATE WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS - Thunderstorm activity will return to the mountains and higher foothills today as monsoon moisture lurks to the west. There remains uncertainty as to whether there will be much activity over the District itself... One thing is for certain, there will be haze from smoke and temperatures will continue to run in the 90's for highs over the plains. - Thunderstorms will develop along and W of the Continental Divide by early afternoon. North to south upper level steering winds is expected to keep the shower and thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain with the District remaining dry for another day. Although unlikely, there is a slight chance this evening for a very isolated storm moving off the higher terrain via gust front activity favoring areas W of I-25. - If a thunderstorm is able to develop today they will likely favor the terrain west of the District forecast area. Should thunderstorm activity become more likely as the day progresses over the District the HPO will be updated to reflect higher chances for precipitation. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation expected today or tonight. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Gust front activity from higher terrain storms results in thunderstorm activity developing over the plains late this afternoon and evening with the potential to produce moderate to briefly heavy rain. A LOOK AHEAD: Thunderstorm activity returns to the District on Wednesday with strong storms capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Prime time for thunderstorms looks to be from 2-8pm at this time. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]