Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 859 AM Wed August 16, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS High-pressure continues to hold over the region today resulting in high temperatures to reach the mid 90s this afternoon. A slight chance for a few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, mainly along the foothills as most precipitation struggles to reach the surface on the plains. This is in part due to the wide temperature/dew point spread with high temperatures in the 90s and dew points expected to remain in the low to mid 40s throughout the day today. Initial storm development will be along the Continental Divide by midday and move onto the foothills between 1-2pm. The best chance for storm activity within the District will be between 2-7pm. General storm motions will be from the N/NW to S/SE between 10-15mph with some erratic storm movement possible if stronger storms are able to develop and produce outflow boundaries, however, there will be a minimal chance for any strong storm development today. Overnight will be mild and dry with lows dropping into the 60s on the plains with upper 50s to around 60 degrees in the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.10” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.10-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An overall decrease in moisture in the area tomorrow will likely bring dry conditions across the District as high temperatures remain in the 90s. A chance for afternoon and early evening showers/isolated thunderstorms Friday as high temperatures hold in the 90s. Similar conditions remain in place Saturday with another chance for afternoon/evening showers/isolated thunderstorms with high temperatures once again reaching the 90s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]