Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 849 PM Sat August 6, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM/ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. Additional rain showers and weak thunderstorms will remain possible until around midnight. - Strong thunderstorm activity has diminished over the past few hours with isolated light rain showers and weak thunderstorms remaining over portions of the District at this time. These showers and isolated weak thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward with conditions drying out through midnight. Additional light rain showers may re-develop overnight into early Sunday morning as a cold front moves through. - An abundance of moisture will be in place tomorrow (Sunday) and will result in a threat for thunderstorms that will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm strength will depend upon daytime heating and more sunshine early in the day will likely equate to stronger storms in the afternoon. Areas that experienced heavy rainfall today may not take as much rain tomorrow to produce runoff. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and isolated weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A briefly moderate thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.7" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]