Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 856 AM Mon May 8, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE Another day with above normal temperatures with highs reaching the mid 70's this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies currently with clouds increasing this afternoon and evening. A slight chance this afternoon for a few high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, however most precipitation will struggle to reach the surface with generally just a trace, with up to 0.10" possible. The best chance for shower activity will be between 2-8pm. A slightly better chance for shower activity for areas east of the I-25 corridor as storms strengthen out onto the far eastern plains late this afternoon and evening. Clouds will start to clear out late this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Tuesday. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 40's on the plains, with low to mid 40's along the foothill areas. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1” of precipitation in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.10-0.30” in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly warmer tomorrow along with another chance for high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening with minimal precipitation expected at this time. Slightly cooler Wednesday, however, a stronger disturbance moves over the region bringing a good chance for widespread rain showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and into the evening with some of these storms likely producing some localized heavy rainfall. This shower activity will hang around through the overnight Wednesday and into Thursday with another good chance for widespread rain showers/thunderstorms for the District during the day Thursday. Thursday's rainfall intensity will rely heavily on daytime heating and whether enough sunshine can peak through to heat the surface enough to bring stronger storms in the afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]