Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 856 AM Mon May 2, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH A FEW LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS, DRY AFTERNOON/EVE - Much needed overnight rain showers and thunderstorms impacted portions of the District bringing over an isolated inch of rain for areas around Aurora. A few lingering light rain/mix showers persist currently and will slowly taper off towards the eastern plains through the rest of the morning. - Currently temperatures in the mid to upper 30's across the District as high temperatures reach the upper 40's to low 50's this afternoon. Northerly winds this morning around 10mph will slowly decrease and turn northeasterly to east through this evening. - Skies will gradually start to clear this afternoon with dry conditions expected this afternoon and evening, through the overnight and into Tuesday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Lingering rain showers will produce a trace to 0.10" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An isolated thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday will start off fairly mild before another disturbance moves into the region bringing a good chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in the District Tuesday afternoon and evening with rain showers likely through the overnight and into Wednesday. Due to timing and an increase in upper-level moisture heading into Tuesday afternoon, a low chance for heavy rain tomorrow will be possible at this time. Cooler daytime temperatures during the day Wednesday will limit storm potential, although expected a chance for off and on rain showers throughout the day Wednesday and into Wednesday evening, along with a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening Wednesday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1159 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 AM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 AM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 AM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1159 AM MON Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 AM MON Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 AM MON Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]