Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 935 AM Fri August 2, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot & hazy today with a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. High-pressure still prevails over the Four Corners region today leading to continued hazy conditions this morning. Temperatures will increase into the upper 90s this afternoon with hazy skies continuing into the evening hours. A slight chance for isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms today with the best chance for any storm activity within the District between 1-8pm. Initial storm development will be along the Continental Divide by midday, moving into the foothills between noon-1pm. Storms today will generally be high-based with most areas staying dry. A few elevated dew points this morning, currently 54 degrees at DIA, will keep at least a LOW chance for brief moderate to heavy rainfall, especially if dew points are unable to mix out prior to storm development this afternoon. The largest threat today will be a quick 0.50” in 10-20 minutes, rather than any long-lasting rainfall. Skies will start to clear by sunset with hazy and dry conditions continuing into the overnight. Temperatures this evening will drop into the low 60s on the plains with upper 50s to around 60 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms will have the potential to produce up to 1.00” total in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot and dry conditions are expected tomorrow with a very slight chance for a few high-based showers/thunderstorms along the foothills in the afternoon and early evening. Tomorrow high temperatures will once again reach the upper 90s under mostly sunny skies. A shift in the upper-level flow Sunday will usher in some monsoonal moisture into the region bringing a better chance for afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Similar conditions remain in place Monday with continued southwesterly flow aloft with an increase in overall moisture which will bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]