Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 848 AM Fri September 1, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FOOTHILLS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS South to southwesterly flow aloft will result in generally dry conditions today. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the low to mid 90s. A slight chance for a few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms along the foothills & Palmer Divide this afternoon and early evening. A very slight chance is that one or two of these showers will move into the metro area, however, with relatively dry conditions most, if not all precipitation will struggle to reach the surface this afternoon and evening. The best chance for any shower activity will be between 4-8pm. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.10” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.10-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 0.60” total in under 60. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot again tomorrow with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90s. Another slight chance for a few isolated showers along the foothills in the afternoon and early evening. Once again minimal, if any, rainfall expected inside the District. A better chance for more widespread showers/thunderstorms Sunday with a slight chance for moderate to heavy rainfall within the District. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]