Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 934 AM Mon June 27, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SUNSHINE RETURNS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS - Sunshine returns to the District today allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 80's over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 87 degrees. - Daytime heating and available moisture will combine to produce a build-up of clouds this afternoon and few isolated rain showers and weak thunderstorms will be the result. Between 1-3pm isolated thunderstorms will develop over the foothills with upper level flow from the NW pushing storms to the SE over the plains between 3-5pm. There will then be a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms until about 8 or 9pm then conditions dry out for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. - Typical thunderstorms that develop today will produce light to briefly moderate rain. Best chances will be over the foothills and Palmer Divide with storms on the plains likely favoring areas along and W of I-25 with lesser chances eastward. Most areas over the plains likely miss out on measurable rain today. Storms will move from NW to SE at 15-20mph keeping the shower activity over a single point relatively brief. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Generally dry conditions are expected over the District on Tuesday with any thunderstorm activity confined to the higher terrain leaving the plains on the dry side. Temperatures will continue to climb with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 90's over the plains with 80's in the foothills. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]