Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 1017 PM Sun August 7, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 3'S HAVE EXPIRED AT 10:15PM/MESSAGE 2'S REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL MIDNIGHT - The Message 3's (NWS Flash Flood Warning) issued for Adams, Arapahoe and Denver Counties has been allowed to expire. Message 2's (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) will remain in place until midnight unless cancelled early as thunderstorm activity is diminishing. - Moderate to strong thunderstorms moved through the District this afternoon and evening producing anywhere from 1-3" of rain under the stronger storms. Rainfall intensities reached 1.0"/10 minutes under the stronger storms. The thunderstorm activity has diminished over the past hour with rain showers in their wake which will continue well into the evening. - Additional rain showers although light in intensity will continue to produce runoff and creeks and streams will be running high into the overnight period. Rain showers are expected to taper off after midnight but may linger into the early morning hours on Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Jefferson County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Broomfield County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Douglas County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Adams County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Denver County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM DIA 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Arapahoe County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM the City of Aurora 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Arvada 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Lakewood 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]