Time: 907 AM Tue May 16, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS With more sunshine through the morning today temperatures will warm to just above seasonal averages this afternoon. Highs will top out over the plains in the low to mid 70’s with 60’s in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 71 degrees. Ample moisture remains at the surface with dew points expected to remain in the 40’s through the day and in combination with better daytime heating there will be a build up of clouds this afternoon with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will initiate between 1-3pm and continue possible through 8 or 9pm. Typical storms will move from NW to SE at 20-25mph and generally produce light to briefly moderate rain. Should a strong thunderstorm be able to develop heavy rainfall is possible but relatively fast storm motions will result in brief duration helping to lower potential point rainfall amounts but warranting a low Message potential. After 9pm shower and thunderstorm activity will push east of the District leaving dry conditions for the overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2” of rain. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Should a strong thunderstorm be able to develop it will have the potential to produce brief heavy rain of 0.3-0.8” in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A similar setup for tomorrow with temperatures in the 70’s over the plains with widely scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Typical storms will produce light to moderate rain but a stronger storm may still produce brief heavy rain. A storm system will move into the area on Thursday into Friday with cooler temperatures, more cloud cover and scattered to widespread rain showers as well as a threat for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall but will be fighting colder temperatures and the strength of the storms may very well end up on the weaker side. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]