Time: 934 AM Fri May 14, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS - Temperatures will warm into the low and mid 70's over the plains today with 60's in the Front Range foothills which is slightly above normal for this time of year. Normal high for Denver today is 70 degrees. - Dry conditions this morning will give way to isolated rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms will first develop over the higher terrain by around noon and then move eastward onto the plains by around 1 or 2pm. A chance for isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will persist through about sunset. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief moderate rainfall. - Showers and thunderstorms will be fast moving from WNW to ESE at 20-30mph which will keep any moderate rainfall brief. Stronger thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and hail as well as brief moderate rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm is able to develop and would have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Multiple disturbances moving through Saturday through Tuesday will result in daily showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Some storms may become strong to severe, and runoff may be an issue with stronger/slower moving storms as they will be good rain producers. A string of Message days is likely to unfold. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (85%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (85%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (85%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]