Time: 947 AM Tue July 5, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - The summer monsoon continues to advect Pacific moisture into the state, creating conditions for slow-moving afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the upper 80's to low 90's, with dew points in the mid to upper 40's. - Convection will begin across the foothills around noon, moving northeast at 10-15 mph. The highest QPF amounts are anticipated across the foothills and Palmer Divide, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected along the Front Range Urban Corridor. Stronger storms descending the foothills will have the potential to produce brief moderate to heavy rain, hail, and gusty outflow boundaries. - Storms will propagate out of the District by 10PM, with a slight chance for an isolated shower through 2AM. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of TR-0.2". Moderate to strong thunderstorms may produce rainfall rates of 0.1"-0.5" in 10 to 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchoring or slow-moving strong storms may produce rainfall rates of 0.4"-1.0" in 10-30 minutes, and up to 1.6" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will have a high potential for severe storms as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. High temperatures will reach the upper 80's with dew points in the mid to upper 50's, creating favorable conditions for heavy rainfall-producing thunderstorms. Excessive runoff and flooding is possible across the District. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]