Time: 925 AM Tue May 2, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SPRING CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS High-pressure ridging continues over the Intermountain West today ahead of an upper-level disturbance arriving along the High Plains by midafternoon. This morning will be dry followed by afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms improve around midafternoon as daytime heating erodes the stable layer while dewpoints climb into the upper 30s to low 40s. With upper-level flow out of the south-southwest, storms are expected to favor south to north trajectories. The best chances for precipitation activity will be between 3PM and 9PM across the District broadly. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.20” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain showers/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.10-0.30” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored rain shower/isolated thunderstorm, or training of rain showers, has the potential to produce 0.20-0.50” in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An active week weather wise to start the season, however the threat of heavy rainfall should remain minimal at this time. The spring pattern is expected to continue Wednesday with another round of mid-afternoon to early evening showers and thunderstorms. These chances remain through the rest of the week with rain/thunderstorm chances both Thursday and Friday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]