Time: 725 PM Tue May 16, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1's have been issued for the entire District effective until 10pm this evening. A gust front from the NE has moved through the District and initiated thunderstorms along the foothills. These storms have moved off of the foothills at this time and will move through the District over the next couple of hours, resulting in a chances for some isolated heavy rainfall. Storm motions will be from the NW to SE between 10-15mph as these storms move out onto the eastern plains, which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, storms formed off and along outflow boundaries will have the best chance for longer lasting heavy rainfall. The biggest threat for storms will be from now through 9pm. Rain showers and thunderstorms should start to taper off after this round of activity rolls through, with skies gradually clearing after 10pm. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. A Moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving/stationary thunderstorm formed off an outflow boundary, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.6" in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]