Time: 219 PM Wed July 3, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Improved chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A significant dry line has gradually established throughout the morning and early afternoon across the southern portions of the District (and extends northeast into Nebraska). This dry line is responsible for a few currently active super cells in Nebraska and Northeast Colorado, with convective initiation moving south along the line. Precipitable water (PWAT) values remain relatively modest across the District, 0.45” to 0.60”, on forecast soundings. However, dew points east of the dry line continue to surge into the upper 50s. If storms initiate along this boundary, they will have the potential to produce heavy rain across portions of Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, and Douglas Counties. Storm motions will be from west to east around 20 mph. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.50”-1.00” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorm clusters or complexes may be capable of producing 1.50” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Dry conditions emerge Thursday as upper-level ridging builds across the Great Basin. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s under clear and sunny skies. Friday will be similar with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 800 PM WED 0.05" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) MOD Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM WED 0.05" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) MOD Boulder Current TO 800 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 800 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 800 PM WED 0.05" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) MOD Douglas Current TO 800 PM WED 0.05" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 800 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 800 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 800 PM WED 0.05" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 800 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]