Time: 816 AM Tue July 26, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - An active weather pattern this week with rain showers/thunderstorm chances picking up this afternoon. Currently dew points are in the low to mid 50's and they are expected to drop slightly into the upper 40's to low 50's this afternoon, combined with a weak upper-level disturbance moving through the region this afternoon will result in a LOW chance for Message 1's today. - Storms will first initiate along the higher terrain to the west between 1-3pm this afternoon with storms moving into the District between 2-4pm with the best chance for storm activity through 9pm with skies gradually clearing through the rest of the evening. Storm motions will be fairly brisk, between 10-15mph which should help limit point rainfall amounts, however, the potential for severe weather increases today, favoring areas east of I-25 at this time. These severe storms have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall, gusty winds 60+mph and hail up to 1". Stronger storms also have the potential to produce outflow boundaries resulting in some erratic storm movements at times, effectively increasing the threat for heavy rainfall today. - High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80's on the plains this afternoon with around 80 degrees along the foothills. Skies will gradually clear through the overnight with mild conditions expected through daybreak Wednesday as overnight lows drop to the upper 50's to low 60's STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to brief heavy rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger, stationary thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions will remain in place for Wednesday with another threat for severe weather towards NE portions of the state. A continued risk for moderate to heavy rainfall will remain in place for the District Wednesday. A cold front moves into the region early Thursday morning effectively dropping high temperatures into the mid to upper 70's. These cooler temps will play a significant part in whether or not rain showers and thunderstorm intensity will bring heavy rainfall with at least a low chance for Message issuance likely at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) to 1.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) to 1.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) to 1.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]