Time: 920 AM Fri June 14, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warm and sunny to start the day with a good chance of strong to severe storms this afternoon. An active weather day today for the District as widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and possibly lingering into the later evening hours. High temperatures today will reach the low to mid 80s with clouds increasing this afternoon as storms start to initiate along the higher terrain by midday. A good chance storms become severe today, favoring areas east of I-25, mainly for brief gusty winds 60+ mph and hail up to 1.5”. Typical showers will be between 0.25-0.75” with isolated higher amounts possible under stronger storm development. Storms will generally move from the WSW to ENE between 10-15mph with erratic storm movement likely along outflow boundaries this afternoon and early evening. The best chance for storms today will be between 1-6pm with a slight chance for a few lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms into the evening hours before skies gradually clear through the overnight. Overnight conditions are expected to be mild as temperatures drop into the low 60s. A few areas of patchy fog will be possible through daybreak tomorrow before burning off as the morning progresses. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.25”-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.75-1.25” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 2.50” total in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure starts to build tomorrow leading to mostly mild and dry conditions throughout the day. A slight chance for the typical late spring showers and isolated thunderstorms. A slight chance will likely remain at least for a LOW chance for brief heavy rainfall, mainly due to residual moisture at the surface from today’s rainfall event. Tomorrow’s high temperatures jump back into the upper 80s to low 90s. Dry and hot Monday as high temperatures reach well into the 90s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%) HIGH Arapahoe 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%) HIGH Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%) HIGH Broomfield 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%) HIGH Denver 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft       Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%) HIGH Boulder 1200 PM TO 500 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]