Time: 1002 AM Thu July 7, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- AFTERNOON THUNDERTORMS CONTINUE LIKELY TODAY/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT DECREASES - Another wave of scattered to widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms today as high temperatures reach the upper 80's to around 90 degrees. Dewpoints will be in the upper 40's to low 50's; slightly lower than yesterday. Convection will begin across higher terrain around noon. - Storms are expected to descend the foothills during the early afternoon hours. Storm motions will be east at 15-20 MPH. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will favor areas across the foothills and east of I-25. There is a slight chance for a stronger thunderstorm or two capable or producing brief heavy rainfall, hail, and gusty winds. - Prime time for thunderstorm activity is from 1-8pm with additional light rain showers possible into the evening. Storm motions will shift to west-northwesterly around sunset with meaningful activity dissipating across the District before midnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.3" of rain. Moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Storms anchored to the foothills or surface boundary could produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.2" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.2" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A retrograding ridge will begin expanding across the intermountain west on Friday. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90's with a slight chance for weak afternoon showers and thunderstorms. 500mb heights may reach 600dm this weekend, producing daily highs in the mid to upper 90's. Some areas across the District may exceed 100 degrees. Dry and sunny conditions are expected. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]