Time: 1002 AM Thu July 7, 2022
Forecaster: Laura Smith
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Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
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AFTERNOON THUNDERTORMS CONTINUE LIKELY TODAY/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
DECREASES
-
Another wave of scattered to widespread afternoon showers and
thunderstorms today as high temperatures reach the upper 80's to
around 90 degrees. Dewpoints will be in the upper 40's to low 50's;
slightly lower than yesterday. Convection will begin across higher
terrain around noon.
-
Storms are expected to descend the foothills during the early
afternoon hours. Storm motions will be east at 15-20 MPH. Weak to
moderate thunderstorms will favor areas across the foothills and east
of I-25. There is a slight chance for a stronger thunderstorm or two
capable or producing brief heavy rainfall, hail, and gusty winds.
-
Prime time for thunderstorm activity is from 1-8pm with additional
light rain showers possible into the evening. Storm motions will shift
to west-northwesterly around sunset with meaningful activity
dissipating across the District before midnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.3" of rain. Moderate to briefly
strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates
of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Storms anchored to the foothills or surface
boundary could produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.2" in 10-30 minutes and
up to 2.2" in 45-75 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A retrograding ridge will begin expanding across the
intermountain west on Friday. High temperatures will reach the low to
mid 90's with a slight chance for weak afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. 500mb heights may reach 600dm this weekend, producing
daily highs in the mid to upper 90's. Some areas across the District
may exceed 100 degrees. Dry and sunny conditions are expected.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
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Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%)
MOD
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%)
MOD
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%)
MOD
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%)
MOD
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%)
MOD
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%)
MOD
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
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Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%)
MOD
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%)
MOD
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[
http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]