Time: 954 AM Wed August 7, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot with chances for afternoon to evening showers and storms. High pressure ridging over the region will continue to favor hot weather today with a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon temperatures will reach the mid to upper 90s, dewpoints will be in the low to mid 50s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.85”. Like yesterday, these conditions will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, beginning over higher terrain early this afternoon and moving onto the plains by midafternoon. Storm motions will be from west to east broadly, around 15-20 mph. Overnight, a few isolated showers are possible ahead of the cold front, but precipitation is expected to remain relatively light. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between 0.25”-0.50” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving stronger thunderstorm may be capable of producing 1.25” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: A broad, upper-level low will slowly traverse the Northern Plains early tomorrow morning, displacing the ridge currently over the Four-Corners region towards the southwest. This upper-level disturbance will transport a dense envelope of Pacific mid-level moisture into Colorado, supporting several days of persistent, meaningful rain and cooler temperatures starting tomorrow through Saturday. At this time, the approaching cold front is expected to move through the District early tomorrow morning. There is still some uncertainty about the timing of the front, which will depend on how long the airmass stalls north of the Cheyenne Ridge. We will continue to monitor this system as it tracks south and update as needed. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]