Time: 1104 AM Fri June 14, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 7:00 PM Message 1’s has been issued for the entire District effective until 7:00pm as the threat of heavy rainfall with a chance for severe storms, favoring eastern portions of the District. Severe storms may contain large hail up to 1.5” and gusty winds 60+ mph. The best chance for widespread showers/thunderstorm activity within the District will be between 1pm-6pm with a few isolated lingering showers possible through 10/11pm. The initial round of storms will produce the strongest storms of the day with moderate to heavy rainfall likely at times. Storm intensities will decrease into the evening hours tapering off completely by midnight. Storm motions will be west/southwest to east/northeast between 10-15mph which could limit point rainfall amounts. However, outflow boundaries will likely produce some erratic storm movement which will increase chances for heavy rainfall across the District. Skies will clear this evening with dry conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the upper 50s to low 60s on the plains with low to mid 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.75-1.25” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 2.25” total in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Wheat Ridge 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM Lakewood 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM Arvada 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM the City of Aurora 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM Arapahoe County 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM DIA 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM Denver County 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM Adams County 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM Douglas County 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM Broomfield County 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM Jefferson County 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM Boulder County 1 1200 PM TO 700 PM 100 PM TO 600 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 1200 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield 1200 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Denver 1200 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) to 1.25" (15%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) to 1.25" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) to 1.25" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]