Time: 828 AM Sat July 3, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM AND SUNNY WITH A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Warmer and sunny today as high temperatures reach the upper 80's to low 90's across the plains this afternoon with low to mid 80's along the foothills. A chance for scattered afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with a slight chance for lingering rain showers into the evening. - Storm motions have increased today as a stronger west/northwesterly upper-level component is in place today. This west/northwesterly air will be a bit drier than previous days resulting in a less chance for heavy rain, both moisture wise and storm motion wise as storms will be moving fairly brisk from west to east between 10-15mph. This movement speed will also help limit point rainfall amounts this afternoon and evening under storms that do develop. - Storms will initiate over the higher terrain around midday. Best chance for storms in the District will be from 1-7pm with peak storm chances between 3-6pm. After 7pm, most if not all storm activity will be well east of the District, where a slight chance for severe weather is possible. Skies gradually clear into the evening with mild and dry conditions overnight and into 4th of July. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical weak rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions Sunday as high temperatures remain in the upper 80's to low 90's for the plains with low to mid 80's for the foothills. A slight chance Sunday afternoon for scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, however, at this time skies should begin to clear before sunset, leading to mild and dry conditions for any evening 4th of July celebrations. A slight uptick in moisture Monday will lead to a better chance for rain/thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]