Time: 828 AM Sat July 3, 2021
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
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Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
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WARM AND SUNNY WITH A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
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Warmer and sunny today as high temperatures reach the upper 80's to
low 90's across the plains this afternoon with low to mid 80's along
the foothills. A chance for scattered afternoon rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms with a slight chance for lingering rain showers into the
evening.
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Storm motions have increased today as a stronger west/northwesterly
upper-level component is in place today. This west/northwesterly air
will be a bit drier than previous days resulting in a less chance for
heavy rain, both moisture wise and storm motion wise as storms will be
moving fairly brisk from west to east between 10-15mph. This movement
speed will also help limit point rainfall amounts this afternoon and
evening under storms that do develop.
-
Storms will initiate over the higher terrain around midday. Best
chance for storms in the District will be from 1-7pm with peak storm
chances between 3-6pm. After 7pm, most if not all storm activity will
be well east of the District, where a slight chance for severe weather
is possible. Skies gradually clear into the evening with mild and dry
conditions overnight and into 4th of July.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical weak rain
showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.1" in 10-30
minutes. A moderate rain shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.1-0.3" in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will have the potential to
produce 0.3-0.8" in 45-75 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions Sunday as high temperatures remain in
the upper 80's to low 90's for the plains with low to mid 80's for the
foothills. A slight chance Sunday afternoon for scattered rain
showers/isolated thunderstorms, however, at this time skies should
begin to clear before sunset, leading to mild and dry conditions for
any evening 4th of July celebrations. A slight uptick in moisture
Monday will lead to a better chance for rain/thunderstorms in the
afternoon and early evening.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
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Adams
200 PM TO 700 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 700 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 700 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 700 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 700 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 700 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 700 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
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Boulder
200 PM TO 700 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 700 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 700 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[
http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]