Time: 926 AM Sun July 7, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Cooler today with a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. A cold front that moved through overnight has brought cooler and cloudy conditions to start the day today. Temperatures will play a significant role in storm strength this afternoon with cooler temperatures likely limiting any severe potential across the I-25 corridor this afternoon. Dew points are currently in the low to mid 40s and should hold throughout the day. These dew points, combined with an approaching disturbance will result in isolated storms across the District this afternoon and early evening with a LOW potential for localized moderate to heavy rainfall out of the storms that do develop today. Storm motions will be from the NW to SE between 10-20mph which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, stronger storms will produce outflow boundaries resulting in a better chance for erratic storm motions. The largest threat today will be a quick 0.50”-0.75” in 10-30 minutes rather than any long-lasting rainfall. The best chance for impactful storms will be between 2-7pm with a few lingering showers possible through 9pm before skies gradually clear out through the late evening. Overnight is expected to be mild and dry as temperatures drop into the low to mid 50s on the plains with low dropping to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05”-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.40-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.50” total in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will start to dry out at the surface with more typical dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s in the afternoon. A slight chance for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible, although with decreased dew points, high-based storms will be likely with minimal rainfall expected at this time. Tuesday will be similar with another chance for high-based afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms with minimal precipitation as most struggle to reach the surface during peak daytime heating. This will likely result in gusty sprinkles rather than any meaningful rainfall for the plains with a slightly better chance for rainfall along the foothills regions at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (50%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (50%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (50%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (50%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (50%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (50%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (50%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]