Time: 922 AM Fri September 16, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - An upper-level disturbance will continue to work it's way across the intermountain west today, creating a favorable environment for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the District. - With a jet streak positioned across the Colorado/Utah border, upper level steering winds will support fast-moving storms. High temperatures today will reach the upper 70s to low 80s, surface dew points in the mid to upper 40's -- much lower than yesterday. With an increase in storm motions and lower surface dewpoints, storms will produce light to moderate rainfall today. - As showers and thunderstorms taper off into the evening, skies will gradually clear through the overnight with cool and mild conditions expected into Friday. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 50's on the plains with upper 30's to low 40's across the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorms can produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 0.5"-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The warming trend continues Saturday with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s with another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms. High pressure ridging will build across the Great Plains next week, transporting warm, dry air into the state. As a result, Sunday and Monday will be sunny and uneventful with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Adams 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]