Time: 921 AM Fri May 31, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Chances for showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A stratus deck has developed behind a cold front sweeping across the District this morning. Cooler temperatures and morning cloud cover will limit thunderstorm development this morning and during the early afternoon hours. However, upper-level conditions are favorable, and atmospheric moisture across the region remains elevated in the wake of last night's significant hailstorm. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 70s, dew points in the mid 40s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.7”. There is still some uncertainty about rainfall as cloud cover may persist across the District through the late morning and possibly into the afternoon. If the status dissipates by late morning, chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will improve throughout the day, becoming scattered by the late afternoon. Storm motions will be from west to east around 15-20 mph. Storms will begin clearing by the early evening, with precipitation concluding by the mid to late evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce 0.05”-0.30” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: There is a slight chance for training storms, which may produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall up to 0.55” of rainfall in up to 10-15 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: On Saturday, mostly sunny morning skies will allow afternoon temperatures to climb into the 80s. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms improve during the afternoon and evening with a low chance for severe storms. On Sunday, high pressure ridging will begin building over the four corners region. Skies will be sunny with dry conditions and afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. Hot and dry weather continues Monday with sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.55" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.55" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.55" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]