Time: 548 PM Wed August 3, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- GUST FRONTS S/SW OF THE DISTRICT HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE DIRSTICT - A gust front is currently moving into the District from the S/SW and could potentially trigger storms across the District this evening. Best chance for storm development will be from now until 9pm. - Initial storms that moved off the foothills mixed out before impacting the Denver Metro area. Stronger storms along the Palmer Divide have produced a gust front, combined with mid 40's dew points has increased chances for moderate to brief heavy rainfall across the District. This has resulted in an updated to the HPO to include ALL counties to a LOW risk for heavy rainfall at this time on the plains with a MODERATE risk for the foothills. - Storm motions will generally be from the W/NW to E/SE between 10-20mph helping limit point rainfall amounts. However if storms do develop along the gust front, erratic storm motions will be possible which will increase the chance for moderate to brief heavy rain. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3". Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Warm layer of air aloft erodes allowing for stronger storms over the plains with the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.8" in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected on Thursday with better chances for storms over the plains. Temperatures will warm back into the 90's. Friday will also feature isolated to widely scattered storms but the weekend is looking quite active as monsoon moisture moves overhead with thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Boulder Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Denver Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Douglas Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD Douglas Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]