Time: 946 AM Tue July 12, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMING BACK UP WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS - After a nice break from the heat yesterday, temperatures will be climbing back into the lower 90's over the plains with 70's and 80's in the Front Range foothills which is near normal for this time of year. Surface moisture lingers behind the front that moved through early yesterday and with good daytime heating widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop. - Thunderstorms will first initiate over the higher terrain to the W between noon-2pm. Upper level steering winds from NW to SE will push the storms onto the plains after 2pm. Prime time for thunderstorm activity is from 2-8pm. Typical thunderstorms today will produce light to brief moderate rain and breezy winds. Generally one round of storms is expected for the plains but not everyone will experience a meaningful storm today. - Storms are expected to strengthen E of the I-25 corridor possibly becoming strong over the plains but the better chances for strong storms today will be E of the District boundaries. If stronger storms are able to develop further W than expected then brief heavy rainfall may occur. The chances for stronger storms to develop appears low at this time. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms are able to develop with the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-50 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: We will lose some moisture on Wednesday and temperatures will continue their ascent with highs over the plains in the mid 90's to around 100 degrees. With less available moisture thunderstorm activity will be high-based and isolated producing minimal rain and gusty winds. Better chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday with temperatures backing off a few degrees. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]