Time: 900 AM Sun May 19, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warmer today with another chance for a few high-based afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms Very little overall change to the upper-level flow aloft will keep strong westerly winds aloft across the region today keeping mostly sunny and mild conditions throughout the morning. Today’s high temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Clouds will increase midday and early afternoon as a few high-based showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two initiate along the higher terrain foothills and Palmer Divide. Most thunderstorm activity should remain anchored to the higher terrain this afternoon, however a slight chance will remain that a few thunderstorms will make their way onto the plains and into the District. Any shower activity will likely be minimal today as most precipitation struggles to reach the surface. Dew points today will drop into the mid to upper 30s, which should help limit storm strength today. Storm motions will also be brisk, between 15-25mph from west to east which should also help limit any point rainfall amounts today. The best chance for storms will be between 1pm-7pm with skies gradually clearing overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the low 50s on the plains with mid to upper 40s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.05” total in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce a trace to 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.10” to 0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Cooler tomorrow with highs reaching the upper 70s. A good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, picking up into the evening with a slight chance for some brief isolated moderate to heavy rainfall if stronger storms can develop, which will likely result in at least a LOW Message potential day. A continued chance for showers overnight and into Tuesday. Tuesday will remain cool with highs in the low 60s will likely limit rainfall potential with off and on showers likely throughout most of the day. Conditions start to dry out Wednesday with only a slight chance for the typical afternoon spring showers and isolated thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]