Time: 950 AM Sun July 14, 2024 Forecaster: Tim Tonge ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot with scattered, very gusty showers Mid-level water vapor has traversed the outer edge of the ridge over the Four Corners into Colorado today, driving an uptick in thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Once again near triple-digit temperatures are expected today resulting in another Heat Advisory for the District. Slightly elevated moisture will lead storms today to initiate over the high country and be mainly dry, with a lot of downward potential energy for gusty outflows. The best chance for any showers/isolated thunderstorms will be between 1-8pm with a few lingering showers possible through 10pm. Storm motions will be from W/SW to E/NE between 10-20mph. Storms that do spin off the foothills to the plains are unlikely to produce measurable rainfall. However, one or two storms could produce gusty winds and some cloud-to-ground lightning. Mild and dry conditions expected late this evening and through the overnight as temperatures only decrease to around 70 degrees on the plains with mid to upper 60s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms over the foothills today have the potential to produce up to 0.20” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving thunderstorm may be capable of producing 0.50" or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly cooler tomorrow with another chance for high-based afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms. Once again, there is a minimal chance for meaningful precipitation as most rainfall struggles to reach the surface. As the heatwave ends, moisture will begin to stream back into Colorado, and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely to produce appreciable rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. This increase in moisture will likely result in a LOW chance for Messages both days and possibly into Thursday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]