Time: 1223 PM Thu June 15, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 10pm. Storms have initiated along the higher terrain this morning and are slowly moving eastward as the follow the upper-level disturbance. As these storms progress eastward, some erratic storm motions could develop resulting in pockets of heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding. The biggest threat today will be a quick 0.5” in 10 minutes, rather than any long-lasting rainfall, however, some training of rain showers cannot be completely ruled out, also increasing the threat for localized flooding. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be from now through 10pm this evening with a couple of rounds of storms possible. Models suggest the possibility of a late eve/overnight round of showers/isolated thunderstorms, however the threat for heavy rainfall is minimal at this time due to the timing of the storms. If these storms look to increase through the late evening/overnight, an extension of Message 1’s may be needed. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.1-0.3" total, in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8" total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary or training of slow-moving thunderstorms have the potential to produce up to 1.6” total, in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]