Time: 923 AM Fri June 7, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot today with a slight chance for high based showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. West to northwesterly flow aloft will continue to dominate today, leading to hot and mostly dry conditions this afternoon and into the evening. Dew points will likely mix out during the day today, dropping into the mid to upper 30s, effectively limiting precipitation during the day today as most rainfall will likely struggle to reach the surface. The best chance for any shower activity within the District this afternoon will be between 1-8pm with a few lingering showers possible through midnight. Storm motions will be west to east between 10-15mph which will also limit point rainfall amounts. With temperatures in the 90s, and dew points in the 30s, expect some gusty winds with any rainfall that evaporates with some gusts as high as 50mph under dissipating storms. Skies will gradually clear later this evening with dry conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees on the plains with around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a T-0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.10-0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 0.4” total in under 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures tomorrow will decrease into the low 80s in the afternoon. A better chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. A slight chance one or two of these storms become severe with hail up to 1.0” and gusty winds up to 60mph. This will also result in at least a LOW chance of heavy rainfall for the District. Any storm activity tomorrow is expected to clear out by 8pm with clear skies through the late evening and overnight. Similar conditions remain in place on Sunday. However, slightly less overall moisture will decrease storm potential across the I-25 corridor. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]