Time: 804 AM Thu June 15, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CLOUDY, COOL WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES THIS MORING, A CHACNE FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A disturbance will move over the region and slowly progress eastward throughout the day today. Cooler and cloudy to start the morning, could very well suppress storm intensities this afternoon. However, a good chance will remain for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms with multiple rounds of storms possible into the late evening hours. Sprinkles to light rainfall currently, will likely continue through the morning. Chances for better precipitation picks up this afternoon with the best chance for impactful rain between 1-9pm with a few lingering showers through the late evening, similar to yesterday evening. Storms are not expected to produce exceptionally heavy rainfall today. However, due to an already saturated surface, combined with sufficient low-level moisture, there will be a MOD chance for Message 1’s as the threat for localized flooding from moderate to brief heavy rain remains high. Storm motions should also help limit point rainfall amounts today, with west to east storm movements around 10mph, with some erratic storm motions possible if stronger storms are able to develop which will likely produce outflow boundaries. The outflow storms will be the most likely to produce a quick 0.5” in 10-30 minutes today. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of moderate showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.6” total in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place Friday, with another good chance for precipitation during the morning. The chance for storm activity will again pick up during the afternoon hours, lasting well into the evening. A bit drier Saturday, leading to dry conditions in the morning hours, with a slight chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]