Time: 735 PM Mon July 3, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS An upper-level disturbance has moved into the region and will likely bring a few scattered showers/thunderstorms over the next few hours. These storms have initiated along the higher terrain and will be moving E/NE and through the District. Storm motions are relatively brisk between 10-20mph, which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, if s stronger storm is able to develop, some erratic storm motions could be possible leading to a quick 0.5” in 10-20 minutes. Dew points has also increased along eastern portions of the District, into the low 50’s signaling a chance for better storm development as these storms move eastward and onto the plains. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.2” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.20-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger, slow-moving thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 1.0” in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be an active day across the Front Range Urban Corridor as a strong cold front approaches from the north. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms initiating during the early afternoon. Thunderstorms may become severe, producing gusty outflows exceeding 58 mph, and hail greater than 1.00 inch in diameter. Storms will persist into the evening and overnight hours as the cold front works its way across the High Plains. Showers will continue through Wednesday with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]