Time: 913 AM Sun May 14, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT A cold frontal passage that moved through the area overnight will be responsible for overcast skies with scattered to widespread rain showers today and tomorrow. Light to briefly moderate stratified rain showers are expected late this morning and through the afternoon hours. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s, dew points upper 40s to around 50. Rain showers will persist through the overnight hours and into tomorrow. Storm motions will be from the northeast moving southwest with the best time for showers between 200PM and 1000PM. Cooler temperatures will likely suppress stronger storm development today and this afternoon. Due to excess moisture both at the surface and aloft, any rain showers produced could become efficient rain producers, especially along the foothill areas where storms could anchor due to persistent NE surface flow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.25” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.25”-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored rain shower/isolated thunderstorm, or training of rain showers, has the potential to produce 0.75”-1.50” in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Monday will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 60s as light rain showers gradually move across the area throughout the day. Chances for thunderstorms tomorrow will be greatest during the late afternoon to early evening hours. The springtime thunderstorm pattern remains in place with warmer temperatures and afternoon thunderstorms expected into late next week. Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar, with mostly sunny morning skies followed by a round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid 70s to low 80s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 300 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Douglas 300 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Jefferson 300 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]