Time: 839 AM Mon July 24, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS Once again, very little change to the overall upper-level pattern as northwesterly flow aloft continues to dominate over the region. Dew points have decreased this morning and will likely mix out through the rest of the day, dropping into the low to mid 40’s, with possibly a few upper 30’s for areas west of I-25 this afternoon. These lower dewpoints suggest that any storm development will remain high-based bringing minimal, if any, rainfall for most areas. The best chance for storm development withing the District will be between 4-10pm. Storm motions will once again be NW to SE between 15-25mph, effectively limiting any point rainfall amounts. A few storms could produce some lightning with a very slight chance for a few pockets of light to moderate rainfall, however any shower activity today should remain brief. Skies will clear late this evening with overnight lows well in the 60’s on the plains with upper 50’s to around 60 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a TR-0.10” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate showers/isolated thunderstorm will produce 0.1-0.3” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm is able to develop and will have the potential to produce up to 0.6” total, in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Not much change Tuesday with another chance for afternoon/evening high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms, with most precipitation struggling to reach the surface as high temps continue in the mid to upper 90’s. Similar conditions to start the day Wednesday, a slight uptick in overall moistures suggests a slightly better chance for storms in the afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (35%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (35%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (35%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]