Time: 743 PM Fri August 23, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- A gust front moving through the District currently has increased chances for shower activity this evening. Strong to severe storms out on the eastern plains have produced a gust front that is moving into the District at this time. Temperatures have held in the upper 70s to low 80s and with dew points still around 50 degrees, likely increasing behind the gust front. This will result in a slight chance for additional storms this evening with a LOW chance for additional Messages. The best chance for storms will be over the next few hours as this gust front moves westerly and into the foothills. Storms that do develop will have the potential for brief moderate to heavy rainfall with the largest threat being a quick 0.5” in 10-20 minutes rather than any long-lasting rainfall. Storm motions will also be brisk, between 15-20 mph helping limit point rainfall amounts. Overnight temperatures will decrease into the low 60s for the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. Slightly drier conditions move into the region tomorrow, however, a continued chance for a few late afternoon and early evening showers/thunderstorms. High temperatures tomorrow will also be similar, in the low 90s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: A weak to moderate shower will produce a trace to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.25”-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.50”-1.00” total in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A slight chance for an additional round of showers late this evening/overnight, likely bringing minimal additional rainfall across the District. Tomorrow will be warm with highs around 90°F once again and slight chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Very little change to this pattern is expected on Sunday as highs hover around 90°F with chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]